線上賭場規則描述：：如果你有了智能手機、iPad（或其它品牌的平板電腦）和一臺可以上網的電視，你還真的需要PC嗎？現在，答案可能是“是”。但是，至少在消費市場，PC面臨被遺棄的危險。　　這是我從思科6月1日公布的第五個年度《可視化網絡指數預測》（Visual Networking Index Forecast）中的數據得出的結論。該報告根據分析師預測、思科自己的估計與預測以及直接的數據收集，試圖預測未來趨勢。　　主要發現是：互聯網流量繼續急劇增長，而且越來越多的流量正在使用PC以外的設備。如果預測比較接近真實情況，這預示建設互聯網基礎設施和生產消費電子產品的企業將繼續保持繁榮，尤其是生產移動設備的廠商，同時暗示PC廠商最好使業務多樣化，而且要盡快這么做。　　根據上述預測，到2015年的時候：　　- 全球互聯網總體流量將達到目前的4倍，達到每年966exabytes，接近1個zettabyte。　　- 網絡互聯設備的數量將會超過150億臺，相當于全世界人口數量的兩倍。世界上每個人會有兩臺互聯設備，多于去年的一臺。　　- 全球互聯網用戶將接近30億個，占到世界預計人口的40%以上。　　- 平均固定寬帶速度預計會提升至目前的4倍，2015年將從2010年的7 Mbit/s上升到28 Mbit/s。　　- 每秒將有100萬分鐘視頻通過互聯網傳輸，相當于674天。　　- 平均全球IP流量將達到每秒245TB，相當于每天有2億人同時傳送一部高清電影。　　- 全球移動互聯網數據流量將會增加到2010年的26倍，達到每月6.3 exabytes。　　報告指出的兩個最重要趨勢顯示，新型設備正在超越PC。看看這些數字，就能明白為什么PC廠商拼命想在平板電腦市場打開局面。　　首先，越來越多的互聯網流量來自PC以外的設備。去年，只有3%的消費互聯網流量來自PC以外的設備，而到2015年這一數字將上升到13%。PC創造的流量將以33%的復合年度增長率增長，而電視、平板電腦、智能手機和機器對機器（M2M）的流量增長速度將分別高達101%、216%、144%和258%。　　如果看看網絡視頻，脫離PC的趨勢更加明顯。2010年底，92%的互聯網視頻流量來自PC。到2015年，該比例預計將下降到79%，20%以上的互聯網視頻流量將來自非PC設備。到2015年，電視將占逾10%的互聯網視頻流量，突顯互聯網電視的強勁增長。　　其次，各種設備的便攜性和無線連接功能日益增強。去年，有線設備仍在IP流量中占多數，約為63%。但到2015年，來自無線設備的流量預計將超過有線設備，WiFi和移動設備將占到54%，而有線將僅占46%。　　隨著互聯網上的設備數量與類型繼續快速增長，傳統PC越來越像即將滅絕的恐龍。你認為它能幸存嗎？傳統PC廠商如何才能避免走向滅絕？ 12 　　附英文原文：　　As Internet Traffic Grows， PCs Risk Being Left Behind　　Tam Harbert　　When you have a smartphone， an iPad （or another brand of tablet）， and an Internet-connected TV， will you really need a PC？ Today， the answer is probably yes. But， at least in the consumer market， the PC is in danger of being left behind.　　That‘s what I got out of the data Cisco Systems Inc. （Nasdaq： CSCO） published on June 1 in its fifth annual Visual Networking Index Forecast， an attempt to predict trends based on a combination of analyst projections， Cisco’s own estimates and forecasts， and direct data collection.　　The main finding： The amount of Internet traffic continues to explode， and that traffic is increasingly using vehicles other than the PC. If the forecast is even close to accurate， it spells continued prosperity for companies that build the Internet infrastructure and consumer electronics， particularly mobile devices， while indicating that PC manufacturers had better diversify， and fast.　　By 2015， according to the forecast：　　● Total global Internet traffic will quadruple， reaching 966 exabytes， almost one zettabyte， per year.　　● The number of network-connected devices will be more than 15 billion， twice the world‘s population. There will be two networked devices per capita， up from one per capita last year.　　● Internet users will number nearly 3 billion， more than 40 percent of the world’s projected population.　　● Average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase fourfold， from 7 megabits per second in 2010 to 28 Mbit/s in 2015.　　● One million video minutes the equivalent of 674 days will traverse the Internet every second.　　● Average global IP traffic will reach 245 terabytes per second， equivalent to 200 million people streaming an HD movie simultaneously every day.　　● Global mobile Internet data traffic will increase 26 times from 2010 levels to 6.3 exabytes per month.　　Two of the most important trends noted in the report show how new devices are gaining on the PC. Read these numbers and you understand why PC manufacturers are desperately trying to gain traction in the tablet market.　　First， more and more Internet traffic is coming from devices other than PCs. Last year， only 3 percent of consumer Internet traffic originated from non-PC devices， but by 2015 the non-PC share of consumer Internet traffic will grow to 13 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 33 percent， while TVs， tablets， smartphones， and machine-to-machine （M2M） modules will have traffic growth rates of 101 percent， 216 percent， 144 percent， and 258 percent， respectively.　　If you look at video on the Internet， the swing away from PCs is even stronger. At the end of 2010， 92 percent of Internet video traffic originated from PCs. By 2015， that is expected to drop to 79 percent， with more than one-fifth of Internet video traffic coming from non-PC devices. By 2015， TVs will account for over 18 percent of Internet video traffic， demonstrating the growth in the adoption of Web-enabled TVs.　　Second， the device mix is becoming increasingly portable and wireless. Last year， wired devices still accounted for most of the IP traffic some 63 percent. But by 2015， traffic from wireless devices is expected to exceed wired， with WiFi and mobile devices accounting for 54 percent versus only 46 percent for wired.　　As the number and types of devices on the Internet continue to mushroom， the traditional PC is looking more and more like a dinosaur. Do you think it will survive？ What should the traditional PC makers do to avoid extinction？ 12